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减配监测 - AI缩水指数

你的AI模型是否在掉队?我们每周追踪 28 个闭源API模型的竞争排名。在 21 周内,86% 的模型排名下降 - 许多价格却没有降低。

排名下降模型

24 of 28

平均排名下降

+30.3 positions

最差供应商

ByteDance

最大跌幅

Qwen3.5 Plus 2026-02-15

#10 → #127

排名下降最严重的模型

21 周内排名下降最多的模型。线条向下 = 排名下降。

Rank Trajectory - 10 Biggest Falls

2026-w08 to 2026-w28 - among 168 proprietary coding models

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排名下降排行

21 周内排名位置下降最多的模型。

Positions Lost

2026-w08 to 2026-w28 - higher = more decline

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本周减配预警

本周排名明显下降的模型(下降2个以上位置)。

Qwen3.5 Plus 2026-02-15 - Rank Trend

Qwen3.5 Plus 2026-02-15

Alibaba

critical

#10 → #127

Dropped 117 positions over 21 weeks

2026-w082026-w28

$1.17/M - unchanged

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Seed 1.6 - Rank Trend

Seed 1.6

ByteDance

critical

#27 → #133

Dropped 106 positions over 21 weeks

2026-w082026-w28

$1.47/M - unchanged

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Seed-2.0-Mini - Rank Trend

Seed-2.0-Mini

ByteDance

critical

#21 → #125

Dropped 104 positions over 21 weeks

2026-w082026-w28

$0.31/M - unchanged

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Nova 2 Lite - Rank Trend

Nova 2 Lite

Amazon

critical

#26 → #87

Dropped 61 positions over 21 weeks

2026-w082026-w28

$1.84/M - unchanged

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Claude Haiku 4.5 - Rank Trend

Claude Haiku 4.5

Anthropic

critical

#25 → #70

Dropped 45 positions over 21 weeks

2026-w082026-w28

$3.80/M - unchanged

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Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview - Rank Trend

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview

Google

critical

#9 → #46

Dropped 37 positions over 21 weeks

2026-w082026-w28

$1.12/M - unchanged

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供应商成绩单

按 21 周平均排名变化评估供应商竞争力。仅包含2个以上被追踪模型的供应商。

Provider Avg Rank Change - 21 Weeks

Positive = models dropped in rank, Negative = models climbed

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提供商等级模型Avg Rank
ByteDanceF2+105.0
AnthropicF5+27.0
GoogleF6+14.5
OpenAIF13+8.1

缩水排行榜

27 个排名有变化的模型,按排名变化排序。

Status模型2026-w082026-w28Change
criticalQwen3.5 Plus 2026-02-15Alibaba#10#127+117
criticalSeed 1.6ByteDance#27#133+106
criticalSeed-2.0-MiniByteDance#21#125+104
criticalNova 2 LiteAmazon#26#87+61
criticalClaude Haiku 4.5Anthropic#25#70+45
criticalGemini 3.1 Flash Lite PreviewGoogle#9#46+37
criticalClaude Sonnet 4.6Anthropic#2#36+34
criticalClaude Sonnet 4.5Anthropic#11#41+30
criticalo4 Mini Deep ResearchOpenAI#18#43+25
criticalGPT-5.1OpenAI#12#30+18
criticalGemini 2.5 Flash LiteGoogle#31#49+18
criticalGemini 2.5 FlashGoogle#32#50+18
criticalClaude Opus 4.5Anthropic#20#37+17
criticalGPT-5.3-CodexOpenAI#7#23+16
criticalGPT-5.1-Codex-MaxOpenAI#16#29+13
criticalo3 Deep ResearchOpenAI#22#33+11
criticalGemini 3 Flash PreviewGoogle#17#27+10
criticalGemini 2.5 Pro Preview 06-05Google#29#39+10
criticalGPT-5.4OpenAI#1#10+9
criticalClaude Opus 4.6Anthropic#6#15+9
warningGPT-5.2OpenAI#8#14+6
warningGPT-5.4 ProOpenAI#4#9+5
warningGPT-5 ProOpenAI#19#24+5
watchGPT-5.1-Codex-MiniOpenAI#30#32+2
improvingGPT-5OpenAI#28#26-2
improvingGPT-5.2-CodexOpenAI#15#12-3
improvingGemini 3.1 Pro PreviewGoogle#14#8-6

缩水如何衡量

我们的缩水指数追踪闭源AI模型在竞争排名中的位置变化,结合价格变动来衡量用户实际获得的价值。

竞争排名

每个模型在所有闭源编码模型中按综合质量分数排名。排名下降意味着竞争对手已经超越了该模型 - 无论模型本身是否改变。

缩水分数

缩水分数(0-100):每下降1个排名位置 = 3分,价格上涨每1% = 2分。公式:clamp(排名变化 * 3 + max(0, 价格百分比变化 * 2), 0, 100)。

状态等级

严重(下降8+位)、警告(4-7位)、关注(1-3位)、稳定(0位)、改善(上升)。基于整个追踪期间的排名变化。

数据来源

追踪 21 周数据(2026-w082026-w28)。闭源编码模型池从约108个增长到约156个。完整评分方法请参阅 评分方法 页面。

Frequently Asked Questions

We track each proprietary AI model's competitive ranking among all proprietary coding models available via API, measured weekly. When a model drops from #2 to #6, it means 4 models now score higher than it did - whether because competitors improved or the model itself changed. This captures the real competitive position that determines what users should pick.

Ranking drops happen for several reasons: new competitors launch with better specs (context window, capabilities, output length), existing competitors get updates, or a model's own specs change. Between w08 and w14, the proprietary coding model pool grew from 108 to 156 models. Even a model with unchanged quality will drop in rank as better alternatives enter the market.

Open-source models have published, immutable weights. Once released, they cannot be silently changed by a provider. Any ranking shifts for open-source models come from new competitors entering, not from the model itself changing. The shrinkflation concept - paying the same price for a relatively worse product - only applies to proprietary API models.

Shrinkflation Score (0-100) combines rank decline and price changes: each position dropped scores 3 points, and price increases add 2 points per percent increase. Formula: clamp(rankDelta * 3 + max(0, pricePctChange * 2), 0, 100). A model that dropped 10 positions with unchanged pricing scores 30. Higher = worse for users.

Absolutely. This is the most common scenario. The AI market moves fast - 48 new proprietary models were added to our tracker in just 7 weeks. A model can be unchanged but its ranking drops because better alternatives now exist. This is still meaningful for users: you're paying the same price for a model that's no longer best-in-class.

相关

AI Shrinkflation Index - Is Your AI Falling Behind? | LM Market Cap